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The CBO says the Senate GOP healthcare bill would leave 22 million more without insurance

The Congressional Budget Office said that under the Better Care Reconciliation Act, 22 million fewer people would have insurance in 2026 than under current law.

Mitch McConnell.

The Congressional Budget Office on Monday released its analysis of the Senate Republican healthcare bill, projecting significant coverage losses both immediately and over the next decade if the legislation were to become law.

The CBO projected that 22 million fewer people would have coverage under the bill, the Better Care Reconciliation Act, in 2026 than under the current healthcare system.

That is slightly below the CBO's projection last month that 23 million fewer people would have coverage under House Republicans' American Health Care Act. But the Senate bill would still push the number of uninsured up to 49 million in 2026 versus about 28 million under current law, the CBO said.

The budget office also projected the bill would reduce the federal deficit by $321 billion between 2017 and 2026 — more than the projected $119 billion in savings under the House bill — meaning it can qualify for passage under Senate rules.

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The savings would be possible with an $862 billion cut in spending over that time, the CBO said, while revenue would decline by about $541 billion from tax cuts.

Moderate GOP senators who have expressed concerns over large coverage losses may not be reassured by the score. Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, a key swing vote, said Thursday that coverage losses of the size estimated by the CBO score were not acceptable.

"I cannot support a bill that's going to result in tens of millions of people losing their health insurance," Collins said.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell can lose only two members for the bill to pass. Five Republicans publicly came out against the bill in its draft form.

Here are a few other key findings from the CBO:

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  • Premiums would increase in 2018 and 2019 compared with the current baseline but decline after.
  • Deductibles and out-of-pocket costs would increase substantially.
  • The newly added waiting-period provision would lead slightly more people to maintain coverage.
  • Individual insurance markets would remain stable.

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