- Secretary of State Rex Tillerson laid out the US's new strategy in Syria, and he named combating Iran's influence and its threat to US interests as a main goal.
- The US has just 2,000 troops in Syria while Iran has an estimated 70,000, but the US has plenty of assets — military, economic, and diplomatic — to deny Iran's dream of outsized influence in Syria.
- The US may look to rally its allies in a full press against Iran's growing influence, and it could follow on Israel's military approach.
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The US just changed course in Syria — and could now look to confront Iran
"We’re going to treat Syria like North Korea, an economic, not just a political pariah," said Badran.
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Secretary of State Rex Tillerson recently laid out a new US approach to the conflict in Syria, and two things became immediately clear — the US is staying in Syria and conflict with Iran could be coming.
Up until this point, the US presence in Syria has focused on fighting ISIS, the terror group that gained control of large swaths of Iraq and Syria in 2014. But with ISIS in rapid decline and its once UK-sized territory all but completely removed from their grasp, Tillerson described Iran as the new principal threat to US interests in Syria.
"Continued strategic threats to the US from not just ISIS and Al Qaeda, but from others, persist," Tillerson said earlier this month. "And this threat I'm referring to is principally Iran."
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Tillerson said Iran "is positioning to continue attacking US interests, our allies, and personnel in the region" through its positioning in Syria.
In no uncertain terms, Tillerson said Iran dreams of a land arch that would connect them to their ally, Lebanon, through Syria, where it can provide weapons support to anti-US and anti-Isreal terror groups. He noted that one of the US's desired end results is that "Iranian influence in Syria is diminished, their dreams of a northern arch are denied, and Syria's neighbors are secure from all threats emanating from Syria."
While the new strategy does not guarantee outright fighting between the US and Iran, it puts the US's 2,000 or so troops in Syria in direct strategic competition with Iran's estimated 70,000.
Numbers can be deceiving
Despite an apparent 35 to 1 numbers advantage for Iranian and Iranian-aligned forces in Syria, Iran's forces are weak, overexposed, and certain to fare poorly in a direct competition with the US, according to Tony Badran, a Syria expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
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US and US-backed forces have already come into contact with Iranian and Iranian-backed forces in Syria, and the short engagements proved decisive victories for the US, which holds considerable advantages in air power and high-end warfighting.
Tehran has its own problems to worry about. Country-wide protests over the country's steep inequality and billions in spending on foreign adventurism have threatened the very fabric of its leadership. Local Syrians — a diverse, mainly Sunni bunch — also may prove resistant to Iran, the dominant Shiite Muslim power in the region.
Though the US and Turkey frequently clash over differences in their vision for Syria, former US ambassador to Turkey and Washington Institute expert James Jeffrey says Washington and Ankara ultimately agree on the broad goals.
"Right now, about 40% of Syria is under control of US or Turkey, and while US and Turkey are not all that well coordinated, both US and Turkey see the goal to a transition to a regime that will not do what [Syrian President Bashar] Assad has done," said Jeffrey.
Jeffrey added that Turkey also would like to reduce the role of Iran in Syria, as Tehran has a "tendency to bully the Sunni Arab population" which could lead to another civil war.
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Badran does not question that the US could easily overwhelm or destroy Iranian forces in Syria, and instead believes the real challenge lies in determining who will establish control of southern Syria in the future.
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