6 questions Raila Odinga must consider before a swearing in

The two are to be inaugurated at Uhuru Park from 10a.m. despite the county government’s assertions that the venue would be cordoned off, risking violent confrontation with police.

President Uhuru Kenyatta was declared winner of the Oct 26 repeat presidential poll by the Supreme Court which dismissed twopetitions challenging the validity of the poll.

The Nasa brigade, which did not participate in the repeat election, has since stated it will not recognize the result and will go ahead with its swearing-in plan.

Many questions have arisen regarding the oath plan despite the government's indication that the event will be an act of “high treason” that is punishable by death.

Business Insider SSA talked to commentator on political affairs Herman Manyora on some key issues the NASA leader must consider if his brigade is to make good its threat next week:

Venue of Ceremony

Under the Assumption of the Office of President Act, the swearing-in should take place in Nairobi on a date and at a place to be designated by the committee that oversees the process and published in the Kenya Gazette.

It should take place between 10am and 2pm.

Professor Manyora argues that the Kenyan government would not allow such a ceremony to take place within the territories of the country.

"If the inauguration ceremony is being held at home, will the government give you such kind of space? And if he was to hold the ceremony in Kisumu, the government would this time round send the army, not even the police,to prevent the occurrence of such an event,"Manyora said.

This perhaps explains why the government has declared Uhuru Park, the venue for Raila's oath, a no-go zone until further notice.

Mr Manyora also opined that having such an event outside the country would be more of a difficult task.

"Which one of these (foreign) countries would be willing to go head on with Kenya in allowing him to host such an event?" he opined.

Judges

Mr. Manyora is of the opinion that not many judges would be willing to put their lives on the line to ordain Mr. Odinga as President. This despite the opposition's stance that Raila's oath will be administered by a "qualified judge".

The move would be a contravention of Article 141 on Assumption of Office of the President which provides that the swearinginof the President-elect shall be in public before the Chief Justice, or, in the absence of the Chief Justice, the Deputy Chief Justice.

International Community

Professor Manyora says that Mr. Odinga would find it hard convincing the international community that Uhuru was not legitimately declared winner, given that the Supreme Court upheld his Oct 26 win.

"Now that the Supreme Court has said that the election is valid, you will have a very big challenge of convincing the international community that Uhuru is not the person to be sworn in."

The international community, which was taken to task over the Aug 8 election, only considers a President who is legally declared winner by the electoral body on the back of a free and fair election.

Instruments of power

Questions still linger on Kenyan's minds on what extra step Mr. Odinga would take to get extra power as the swearing-in, if it were to happen, does not come with the instruments of power.

The NASA coalition, through its CEO Norman Magaya, however insists that the oath plan will include the handing over of "instruments of power" to Mr. Odinga in the full glare of the public. The instruments of power, a ceremonial sword and the Constitution, signify power and authority.

They are largely symbolic, in the Commonwealth traditions, of the seat of authority and the head of Government.

Government Exchequer

The other legal aspect that would face Mr. Odinga as President would be the issue of funding for his regions. While the issue of secession by Nasa is still at play, Mr. Manyora argues that counties in Odinga's regions would still have to depend on the government exchequer for funding.

"Naturally, the allegiance will still flow to the national government because if you break away then you must begin organizing for you own funding," the University of Nairobi lecturer stated.

ICC

NASA's plan to swear in their leader is tantamount to treason since if it were to lead to bloodshed, Raila would then turn out to be an International Criminal Court (ICC) candidate, according to Mr Manyora.

He is of the opinion that the swearing-in is just but a way of appeasing the Opposition's supporters.

"I know their biggest problem is they don't want to lose their disillusioned followers by not swearing in Mr. Odinga as President."