GOLDMAN SACHS: Coronavirus will hit global growth 10 times harder than a major US hurricane — but only in the short term

Gwen Everett

February 13, 2020 7:53 PM

The effects of the Wuhan coronavirus on global growth will be limited to the near term but that doesn't mean they won't be substantial, according to Goldman Sachs.

A man wearing protective mask uses his phone as he walks on a pedestrian bridge, following the outbreak of the new coronavirus in China, in Jakarta, Indonesia, February 13, 2020. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan

Zach Pandl, a Goldman analyst, wrote that the number of missed work days in China will be roughly equivalent to "the entire US workforce taking an unplanned break for two months."
Fear returned to US equities Thursday as China announced a whopping 15,000 additional cases of coronavirus overnight.
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Coronavirus' economic impact is only temporary it's also meaningful.

That's according to Goldman Sachs analyst Zach Pandl, who wrote in a Thursday note that the hit to first-quarter global growth as a result of coronavirus will be 10 times larger than a major US hurricane.

"Although ultimately temporary, uncertainty about the economic effects of the outbreak will remain high for some time," Pandl wrote, adding: "It's important to stress just how large of a disruption to business activity the virus has caused."

Exacerbating uncertainty is a data calendar not set to release new macroeconomic numbers until the end of next week, Pandl wrote, adding that some important Chinese data will not hit until mid-March. That spells risk for markets this quarter, especially considering high valuations in equities.

Wednesday, the S&P 500 index closed within 0.6% of Goldman Sachs' price target for the end of 2020.

But Thursday marked a return to fear of coronavirus across asset classes, including those that had previously recovered from lows, like equities, as China announced a whopping 15,000-person spike in coronavirus cases. That brought the total number of people infected to above 60,000 and the death toll to 1,366. Businesses across industries have seen Chinese sales plummet amid the outbreak, and US names like Starbucks, Disney, and Nike have shut down some locations in China in response to the outbreak.

The number of missed work days in China "will be roughly equivalent to the entire US workforce taking an unplanned break for two months," Pandl wrote, adding that central banks are unlikely to intervene in global markets with supportive policy measures. The outbreak can cause significant disruption before it, like all natural disasters, passes , he wrote.

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