Economist Intelligence Unit report predicts President Akufo-Addo to win the 2020 elections

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), the world-acclaimed source of global socio-economic trends has forecast in its latest report that the President, Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo will be victorious in next year’s elections.

President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo

In the forecast released last week, the EIU stated that the former President (John Mahama) would suffer another electoral defeat because most electorates associate him with the economic malaise the country encountered during his tenure and wonder how another tenure would be any different.

“It will be difficult for the NDC under Mr Mahama to portray itself as the better custodian of Ghana’s economy, especially as the country’s growth outlook is fairly strong. We, therefore, expect Mr Akufo-Addo and the NPP to secure re-election in 2020,” the EIU summed up the forecast.

The NPP and the opposition NDC, the EIU observed, are both gearing up for next year’s polls and tension will, of course, ramp up as the country inches towards the period.

“Our forecast that the 2020 polls are for the NPP to lose remains unchanged, reflecting the fact that the party has presided over an economic upswing since 2017,” adding that the NPP’s upswing is in sharp contrast with the decline witnessed under the NDC.

The EIU, however, noted that “if the NDC can present a coherent opposition and hold the NPP to account on unfulfilled campaign promises –particularly on job creation and industrialization, where progress has been generally slow and success patchy – the election could be closely contested.”

Factors which may contribute to the win

Moving swiftly to implement the free SHS which the NDC described as a campaign gimmick was the last nail in the coffin of the main opposition party in the run-up to the 2017 polls, their refrain of ‘the free SHS is unfeasible’ falling flat on its face.

Also, the creation of new regions and municipalities are two major factors which the NPP campaign machinery will unleash to the interest of the party.

Some chiefs in the newly created regions in their excitements pledged support for the President as a show of gratitude for making their elusive dreams of new administrative units come true.

EIU’s Position

Regardless of the outcome of the Kwesi Botchwey research, the EIU believes that “the NDC’s failure was down to the economic deterioration it oversaw, which continues to haunt its chances of recapturing power in 2020.”

The EIU observed that the party “has taken steps to revitalize its ranks and strengthen cohesion," the impact of this is yet to be seen, however.

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