Only eight countries have at least a 5% chance to win the most celebrated sporting event in the World, and only three have better than an 8% shot.
Brazil is once again the pre-tournament favorite to win the World Cup, but the gap between them and the field is not as wide as it was in 2014.
Brazil has a 19% chance to win the World Cup in Russia, according to Nate Silver's model at FiveThirtyEight. They gave Brazil a 36% chance to be champions on their home turf in the last World Cup.
In all, there are eight countries with at least a 5% chance of winning the World Cup.
Here are the chances of winning the World Cup on the eve of the tournament:
No other country has more than a 3% chance of winning the tournament and 14 of the 32 teams have less than a 1% chance of winning. The 24 countries not listed above have a combined shot of 16%. Host country Russia is listed at 1%.