60 per cent of current MPs set to lose seats in August polls - Ipsos

The dissatisfaction in the current lot of MPs is worse in Jubilee strongholds, with defectors to other parties perceived by the electorates as having their “selfish interests”.

A survey done amongst 2,057 Kenyans between January 9th and 26th by Ipsos Kenya, reported that 42 per cent of those polled said their sitting MP is “not likely” to be re-elected, 39 per cent opined that it was “very likely” that their MPs will be re-elected while 19 per cent were not sure.

Of the Jubilee supporters polled, 46 per cent believe their MPs will not be re-elected, while 37 per cent of opposition supporters have a similar view.

On the other political side, MPs from NASA areas can afford a short-lived smile as a 43 per cent of their voters said they are likely to elect them back, 37 per cent think the legislators will be shown the parliament door while a 39 percent of the polled are not sure.

MPs in the Central region have a tough time as over 60 per cent of the polled residents don’t see their current MP taken back for yet another five year term.

Central Kenya is closely trolled by Aden Duale’s North Eastern in the fray of dissatisfaction, with half of respondents saying their MPs will not make it back. On the list follows Rift Valley, with 45 per cent, Western with 44 per cent, Eastern with 37 per cent, Nairobi with 32 per cent, and Nyanza with 31 per cent dissatisfaction.

Moving to the Joho-Kingi coastal region, the possibility of re-election and of being voted out tied at 33 per cent, while a whooping 34 per cent are not sure.

On whether the respondents knew their MPs, either by name or party through which they were elected, Nairobi and Mombasa lead by at least two people in every 10, who do not know either their MPs, or the re-election status. The poll says 58 per cent of Coast residents named their MP correctly, while in Nairobi, only 60 per cent of respondents did so.

The pollster, however, noted the little knowledge of the area MPs in urban areas was expected to be low as “many urban respondents pay more attention to their homes in rural areas,” the pollster explained.

About political affiliations at the Coast, being an opposition stronghold, over 40 per cent of the respondents at the Coast said their MP belongs to the Jubilee Party. 18 per cent of respondents in Nyanza, on the other hand, said their MP is in Jubilee, while 22 per cent said the same in Western. The coastal region, Nyanza and Western are perceived opposition areas.

Defection dilemma

While the poll aimed at finding out what it could mean for party defectors from the opposition to Jubilee, most of the defectors have been warned by the electorates that their move is gravy, 58 per cent of respondents said those who defected to Jubilee or moved closer to it from NASA will lose the battle for parliament.

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On the other side, a whooping 56 per cent of opposition supporters said those who remained steadfast in NASA are likely to be re-elected. Of the defectors to Jubilee only 25 per cent of respondents said they are very likely to be re-elected, the study found.

“While three-quarters of Jubilee supporters indicate their MP is associated with the ruling party, only slightly more than half of Cord-NASA supporters say their MP belongs to that political grouping,” Ipsos said.

A 16 per cent of respondents whose MPs belong to the opposition view the MPs as having “defected or moved closer” to Jubilee, the highest proportion being residents of Eastern and Nyanza.

The main reason to be behind the defection, the pollster said, is for their own “personal benefit” or ”greed”, with five times more of Jubilee supporters holding this view.