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Herman Manyora lists 2 blunders by Ruto camp, predicts landslide victory for Raila

I told Ruto from the onset, I even advised him to drop the guy, but some people laughed at me - Herman Manyora

Azimio presidential candidate Raila Odinga, political analyst Prof. Herman Manyora and Kenya Kwanza candidate William Ruto

Political analyst Professor Herman Manyora has opined that Raila Odinga will win the upcoming presidential election with a landslide victory, explaining why the odds are against Odinga’s main competitor William Ruto of Kenya Kwanza alliance.

The University of Nairobi lecturer explained that despite announcing his candidature years after Ruto had embarked on popularizing his bid, the Azimio la Umoja presidential candidate mounted a well-oiled and strategic campaign that resonated well with voters across the political divide.

He added that Ruto’s waning popularity can be traced back to his “wrong” choice of a running mate and the Azimio’s tact in using corruption as a campaign tool against the Kenya Kwanza duo.

“I told Ruto from the onset that the choice of Rigathi Gachagua would be a bad idea. I even advised him to drop the guy, but some people laughed at me. It is now clear that choice is going to cost him on August 9.


“Corruption is the last masterstroke that Raila unleashed and it has badly damaged Ruto’s reputation. A few critical voters who are yet to decide are definitely not going to vote for a corrupt leader, and those are the people who determine the winner in an election,” Prof. Manyora said.

The seamless campaign saw Odinga claw back on the gains made by Ruto as reflected by opinion polls.

According to Manyora, Odinga is home and dry and the recent emotional outbursts and lamentations by Ruto are part of the healing process in full realization that the prize is gone with his competitor.


“This thing is gone, and even Ruto himself knows it is gone. That is why you can hear him vent frustrations about chiefs and so forth. That is part of the healing process,” Manyora said.

Manyora added that with opinion polls placing Odinga in the lead with between 6-8 percent, it is almost impossible for Ruto to close the gap even if all the undecided 6% were to poll in his favour-a near impossibility.

He noted that “even the undecide voters are actually decided” and nothing much is likely to change between now and Tuesday when voters take to the ballot to deliver the final verdict.

“Ruto has been campaigning since 2018. If he has not convinced these people, how is he going to convince them within this short period.


“This game is over; it is going to be a landslide for Raila Odinga. That 2% deficit is already covered by now and there is going to be more before August 9. The undecided voters are going to be swayed by this wave,” he added.

Five months ago, Ruto was the clear favourite to win the race with some polls placing him in the lead by as much as 20% ahead of Odinga.

However, a tactical Odinga mounted a well-coordinated campaign that saw him overtake Ruto withy all the last polls from mainstream pollsters placing the Azimio candidate in the lead.

TIFA and IPSOS polled Odinga at 47% with Ruto training at 39% and 41% respectively based on the exit polls by the two firms. Infotrack had Odinga at 49% with Ruto at 42%.


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