NEW YORK — It is a special election the likes of which New York has never seen: 17 candidates vying to become the city’s public advocate, in a nonpartisan battle featuring past and present members of the state Legislature and City Council.
It has been an expensive endeavor. The city’s Campaign Finance Board doled out $7.1 million in matching funds to candidates, and its Board of Elections expected to spend $11 million to $15 million to organize the election Tuesday, which was made necessary after Letitia James vacated the public advocate job to become the state attorney general.
Why all the trouble and interest, especially for a position that some say should be abolished?
First, the public advocate is next in line to replace a mayor departing in midterm. Second, others, including Mayor Bill de Blasio, have used the office as a springboard to higher positions. The public advocate also serves as an ombudsman, fielding complaints from residents and examining how city agencies are functioning.
Then again, all of the effort put forth by the candidates, the Campaign Finance Board and the Board of Elections is technically for the honor of serving 10 months: Another election will be held in November to fill out the final two years of James’ term. Primaries were scheduled for June.
Unless the winner of next week’s election gets a margin large enough to scare off potential challengers, “we might see a lot of these same people stick around until June,” said Christina Greer, an associate professor of political science at Fordham University.
Here are seven factors that could determine who will be the next public advocate — at least for the next 10 months.
— Turnout, Turnout, Turnout
How many people vote is a factor in any election, but it is especially important in this race, according to political scientists.
Unlike in a regular citywide election, when contests for mayor or City Council would drive people to the polls, voters Tuesday are likely to be interested in the office of public advocate.
“It’s a really important election because we’ve seen where people have gone after serving in this office,” Greer said. “But it is an obscure office holding an election at an obscure time with a gaggle of candidates, some who are known and others who are unknown.”
Bruce N. Gyory, an adjunct professor of political science at the University at Albany, estimated that based on city primaries with no races for mayor or governor, the turnout Tuesday could range between 200,000 and 600,000 votes.
And with 17 candidates, it seems possible that the winner could attract less than 20 percent of the vote.
Major labor organizations that typically provide Election Day support have largely stayed out of the race.
Leading candidates have qualified for matching funds and could have money for get-out-the-vote efforts across the city. But Steven Romalewski, director of the mapping service at the Center for Urban Research at the City University of New York’s Graduate Center, said it was unclear how robust those efforts would be because of the nature of the election.
“There’s a large number of candidates,” Romalewski said, “and it’s easier to rely on that group of people that really support you.”
— Location, Location, Location
It’s fair to say that New Yorkers have seldom encountered a ballot like they will Tuesday.
Voters will receive a paper ballot with the candidates’ names listed in three horizontal rows. The Board of Elections, however, is using a snake format, meaning that the seventh candidate, Rafael L. Espinal Jr., would seem to have a less desirable spot than the 12th candidate, A. Manny Alicandro.
Espinal asked the Board of Elections to change the ballot order, but the commissioners declined. The snake format has been used in the past, and the commissioners said in declining the request that it would be unfair to candidates who aimed to get a certain position. (The names were listed in chronological order by when candidates handed in their ballot petitions.)
The ballot layout sends a “subliminal message” about importance, Gyory said.
— The Collapse of the Amazon Deal
Many of the major candidates voiced disapproval or apprehension of the now-failed plan for Amazon to build a headquarters in Long Island City, Queens.
Some candidates, such as Ron Kim, an assemblyman from Queens, and Nomiki Konst, an activist, had voiced consistent opposition to the plan. Eric A. Ulrich, a councilman from Queens — one of two Republicans in the race — had voiced strong approval. Other candidates had called for the deal to be revised.
Ulrich could win votes from New Yorkers angry at the loss of potential tax revenue and jobs. “When you are unique in a pack, it could have an impact,” Gyory said. “Ulrich needs the rest of the field muddled and divided.”
So many of the Democrats questioned the plan that voters will have many choices if Amazon is what draws them to the polls.
— Party-Line Names
Because this is a nonpartisan special election, candidates were required to pick party-line names, like Fix the MTA, No Amazon, Equality for All, Unite Immigrants and Livable City.
By serving as a sort of shorthand, the names could help New Yorkers with their selection. “People may come in not knowing how to vote,” Greer said, and the party-line names “may serve to give additional information to voters about what your priorities are.”
— Opinions on de Blasio
Seven candidates who participated in the second and final public advocate debate last week were asked if de Blasio, who has been flirting with running for president, was qualified to do so. The candidates chuckled.
Konst said the mayor was technically qualified. “Legally, yes. He’s over the age of 35,” she said.
“I think he’s delusional,” Kim said. Dawn Smalls, a former lawyer in the Obama administration, added, “He would not be my candidate for president.”
Their point was they believed that de Blasio was distracted from his duties here. “I think the mayor should focus on New York City,” Espinal, a councilman from Brooklyn, said.
The public advocate candidates have also made a point of discussing how they would be a foil to the mayor and challenge him on issues such as lead contamination in New York City Housing Authority apartments.
— Political Ambitions
Technically speaking, none of the candidates has owned up to any mayoral ambitions.
Candidates Jumaane D. Williams and Michael A. Blake have said they would not run for mayor in 2021, and Espinal said he wanted to serve the remainder of James’ term and the next two terms available.
Melissa Mark-Viverito, the former City Council speaker, said she was focused on the public advocate job, but would not rule out a mayoral run. Smalls said she had no plans to run for mayor ever.
The public advocate position is largely seen as a steppingstone to higher office: James became the attorney general, and de Blasio became the mayor. Greer said that supporters of individual candidates would be happy to see the position used as a boost and that voters expect politicians to be ambitious.
And many of the candidates are term-limited members of the City Council or state legislators looking to step into more prominent roles.
“Voters may ask, do you want the job or do you need the job?” Greer said.
— Who Has the Strongest Base
Mark-Viverito has focused her candidacy on the empowerment of women, arguing that New York should not be led by three white men: de Blasio, City Comptroller Scott Stringer and Council Speaker Corey Johnson. But she has also focused on the fact that a Latino has never held citywide office.
Kim said that he expects strong support from Asians, but that he was also cultivating people who were opposed to the Amazon deal.
Ulrich was trying to rally Republicans to his corner, but was also seeking moderate, pro-business Democrats who supported the Amazon deal, and Orthodox Jewish voters. And Williams was looking to repeat the success he had in Brooklyn during his recent failed run for lieutenant governor — he received 440,000 votes in the borough. He has focused on criminal justice reform and other progressive issues.
“The winner will be someone who consolidated their base and was able to build a bridge to a different constituency,” Gyory said.
“The quirkiness of a February special election and the multiplicity of candidates,” he added, “has reduced this race to the equivalent of running the Kentucky Derby on a muddy track.”
This article originally appeared in The New York Times.