Why Ruto faces a tough balancing act in 2027

Kenya’s political chessboard is already shifting ahead of the 2027 General Election. On one side, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has boldly declared it will not settle for anything less than the deputy presidency in any coalition deal. 

On the other hand, a bloc of MPs from Meru and the wider Mt Kenya East region is issuing a clear warning: if Deputy President Kithure Kindiki is dropped, their support for President William Ruto could be withdrawn.

ODM wants “Deputy President or nothing”

Speaking in a televised interview, Senator Oburu Oginga (Siaya), acting leader of ODM following the party’s transition, left little doubt about the party’s minimum expectations for 2027:

If we have to go for a lower position, it must not be lower than number two (deputy president) in any formation. That is my take. We should not take less than that.

He also stressed the need for ODM to strengthen internally before negotiating: “Nobody will respect you or negotiate with you if you are a weak party. Our emphasis is on strengthening our party, ODM, so that we can negotiate for the top position in the land.”

These remarks signal a sharp shift. ODM is making clear that its future role will demand a major executive slot. 

While the party is part of the current “broad-based government” led by Ruto, these comments suggest they are already positioning for the next cycle. 

Suppose President Ruto intends to maintain goodwill with the party’s supporters after tapping former senior officials to join his Cabinet in the broad-based government. In that case, he may have to do a tough balancing act. 

Mt Kenya East demands that Kindiki Stays

Meanwhile, in Buuri Sub-county (Meru County), seven MPs from Mt Kenya East held a grassroots meeting on 3 November 2025, where they made clear their red line.

The lawmakers – including Mugambi Rindikiri (Buuri), Mpuru Aburi (Tigania East), George Mutunga (Tigania West), Dan Kiili (Igembe Central), Julius Taitumu (Igembe North), nominated MP Dorothy Muthoni and Woman Rep Karambu Kailemia, offered full backing to Ruto on condition that Kindiki remains deputy in 2027.

At the meeting, they said:

“We want to tell our president that Mt Kenya East is fully behind him, but our support stands because of Kindiki. … The ODM brigade should forget about this seat because it is not vacant,” said Rindikiri.

They also went a step further in staking out regional ambition:

“We will support Ruto for a second term, but come 2032, our focus will be on Kindiki for the presidency. Since independence, this vote‐rich region has never clinched the top seat. It is time other communities support us as we supported them,” nominated MP Dorothy Muthoni said.

The message is loud: any shift away from Kindiki risks the region’s vote loyalty in the next election.

Balancing Allies and Ambitions

For President Ruto and his ruling coalition, the twin moves from ODM and Mt Kenya East complicate the arithmetic ahead of 2027.

ODM, despite the current broad-based arrangement, has drawn a line. To remain relevant, it must secure a top slot.

Mt Kenya East is signalling that their loyalty is not guaranteed, and the deputy presidency is non-negotiable.

This places Ruto in a delicate position: choosing between satisfying regional power blocs (Mt Kenya East) or negotiating broad alliances (e.g., with ODM). 

If he drops Kindiki to accommodate ODM, he risks losing a key regional base. If he keeps Kindiki at all costs, it might hamper negotiations with ODM or other opposition coalitions.

Whichever scenario plays out, the early positioning by ODM and Mt Kenya East shows that the 2027 election is no longer about who runs, it’s about which blocks claim power and how early those claims are made.

President Ruto’s challenge will be to navigate both demands without alienating key allies or undermining his electoral strategy. 

One thing is certain: the deputy presidency is rapidly emerging as one of the most contested cards in Kenya’s upcoming political game.