J. David Hughes

Richard Heinberg

Earth | Food | Life

The numbers are in. Last year was the&nbsp;hottest on record&nbsp;by a wide margin. The planet is now 1.48 degrees Celsius warmer than it was before the fossil fuel revolution. Global heating is accelerating.

This year (2024) is likely to set another record because the latter half of last year featured an&nbsp;El Nino&nbsp;climate pattern that continues to influence global weather. The last colder-than-average year, according to NOAA, was&nbsp;1976.

The United States experienced a&nbsp;record number&nbsp;of billion-dollar weather disasters in 2023. Canada’s wildfires in June resulted in an unprecedented flurry of air-quality alerts in the Northeast and Midwest of the U.S., with New York temporarily suffering the worst air quality of any city in the world. Wildfires also devastated Maui.

Elsewhere in the world, Libya, Guam, Malawi, and Peru experienced horrific floods. According to the United Nations, drought now affects&nbsp;a quarter of humanity.&nbsp;

<h3>Developing countries&nbsp;were stuck with proportionally higher recovery costs on a per-capita basis.</h3>

The solution to climate change is to reduce and reverse the decades-long trend of annually increasing greenhouse gas concentration in the planetary atmosphere.

So, let’s see what the numbers tell us on that score.

<h3>Carbon dioxide levels in Earth's atmosphere</h3>

The carbon dioxide (CO2) level in Earth’s atmosphere is now over&nbsp;420 parts per million, up from 315 ppm in 1958 when the first direct measurements commenced. The atmospheric CO2 concentration has been increasing at&nbsp;over 2 ppm per year&nbsp;for the past several years.

This added CO2 in the atmosphere comes from human activities that release carbon dioxide (and other greenhouse gases) into the air.

U.S. carbon emissions were&nbsp;<a data-link-role-code="open_new_tab" href="https://sustainability.stanford.edu/news/global-carbon-emissions-fossil-fuels-reached-record-high-2023">down 3 percent</a>&nbsp;in 2023 due mainly to an ongoing national switch from burning coal to burning natural gas for generating electricity. But worldwide carbon emissions were up 1.1 percent compared to 2022.

Since climate change is a global problem, it is the global statistic that matters.

<h3>Relationship between carbon emissions and energy</h3>

Most emissions are energy-related, so phasing out fossil fuels in favor of low-carbon energy alternatives is critical.

While it’s too early to report final data for renewable energy additions in 2023, last June, the International Energy Agency (IEA)&nbsp;forecasted&nbsp;that global renewable energy generation capacity would increase by a record 440 GW for the year (total world renewable energy generation capacity, including hydropower, stands at about 4,500 GW).

However, confusion sometimes results from failure to distinguish&nbsp;production capacity&nbsp;from&nbsp;actual generation&nbsp;since solar and wind installations typically generate only 20-50% of their theoretical capacity due to variations in sunlight and wind.

So, let’s look at the actual generation numbers.

Of the roughly&nbsp;30,000 terawatt hours&nbsp;of electricity generated globally in 2022,&nbsp;8,500 terawatt hours&nbsp;(29%) came from renewables—over half of that from hydropower.

We must be careful to distinguish between “electricity” and “energy”—another frequent source of confusion. Electricity’s share of all end-use energy usage remains stable at about 20 percent.

After accounting for conversion factors, renewables (including solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, biofuels, and traditional biomass—burning wood for cooking and heating) provide about&nbsp;16%&nbsp;of total world primary energy.

Nuclear energy also entails relatively low levels of carbon emissions, but its share of world energy fell to a&nbsp;multi-decade low&nbsp;in 2023, and nuclear projects are notoriously slow and expensive to bring online.

<h3>Is zero carbon emissions possible?</h3>

To reach net zero emissions by 2050 (which&nbsp;<a data-link-role-code="open_new_tab" href="https://u36605228.ct.sendgrid.net/ls/click?upn=JATfH2eKb4CLsSfyNiqx5ZBHWOmSX7bt6vN9DagXbQY5umseuG8I9jZNPhyBMb-2F2zofN_6Qtni-2Fr6M4vNGDEC637HmTXcErEVHomtJcejsgH-2BQPQGjgGpxH7IuINlJbNwUWX44ttNWhIVuXdGbMqBq0CsoYrISQjcLxISF0W4u7zkSLFfBen8z2btNGu5AnWAyViebwIihJ0NG2WR6lrAMUiowIBGaP1go1HzoHtAoxFptsizDovwy-2FpKp-2FeRdUy3wz-2Fne1hUSvXLJUbBHuSFEvBqDypVpxkLSpPmUVN-2B9HBn2lnH4t7a8vx4uzPA5W5PjydCmYtMlBc8tM7iVs5VkQl7xyZaN8tJaJPPDbYCxgI-2BzPeCGY3pqBYb4DYZtzSGDuJULM1lvTpujed8vuMdOJMnzevEzw3x9-2Fna2QkM0ylQ0GgCljI23R4j-2FXP1z4K8Aj63dmXknLFSbEuzkEvr-2BjvPuFyMB9TCTEaKBH08gIUsvJUuQM-2BkBbl-2BFDwnePKtuhToMHGlcadZnoDmPZ6t2zwkM23BmDzCoevVLtlK3sUd3LwvDOV8S8K6aRVN7OsWpnlm-2F4TYy0cPnSb6j1PEq94Tt13F35Qhma1FL-2BUJAAXu2NxB2TzCRxu23y748vj6LZTKUEdnHM36mjEbNqTubapnrZg3dRxOOM-2Fx6CP0LUoh07QR1cQyYFt1eOasH-2F1T1hR-2BFynyKXUODDsiumnBHas8ubD41ZD62R7-2FoLQnfdM21CNezKbCB0UvE5W4O11xwC-2FUlWsL-2BtuGfMlhS2-2FIKR9FwtTW91898jriv5BzO082zSdZa3D0qJhlIY378yJe4jkJOJ7ZxNY18bAxC49-2BV1z1E1LkX5L4khJDcgSSRso6WFjtMQJhF2jMQeWEZbie2gVTCOgMy6pb7gz3ErMPjEyiUkwcffcC83E-2BTnHJdlSHBmU-3D">the IPCC considers necessary</a>&nbsp;to cap warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius) by providing 100% of total global energy from renewables, we would need a nearly ten-fold increase in renewable energy production, even assuming zero growth in overall global energy demand during that time.

Annual additions of solar and wind capacity would have to increase by well over an order of magnitude (10x) compared to the current record rate.

Electrification of transport, manufacturing, agriculture, and other sectors would also need to accelerate dramatically.

Global carbon dioxide emissions and net-zero production, 1750-2050 [Image credit: J. David Hughes; data from Our World in Data via Global Carbon Project]

In its&nbsp;<a href="https://u36605228.ct.sendgrid.net/ls/click?upn=JATfH2eKb4CLsSfyNiqx5cP4C4UVZCoq7AuT1kIaGg6SseqmvO9fYNf7tpQVqpWvkP5bW1NRX-2BizSzVyvM3Bi88oo-2FbPgC5YK1pS67LNJomM3Q-2Bpdser3-2FBBGttnEEoIkAxrjzQ2Wu-2Bgd6cmPfQt5-2B7FRw3W4LbqYFAIte0naRcoS-2BgHxLFwPi9eedUqPFbY-2FqKa0TjTAEju4Fh6DU0FrQ-3D-3DpXTK_6Qtni-2Fr6M4vNGDEC637HmTXcErEVHomtJcejsgH-2BQPQGjgGpxH7IuINlJbNwUWX44ttNWhIVuXdGbMqBq0CsoYrISQjcLxISF0W4u7zkSLFfBen8z2btNGu5AnWAyViebwIihJ0NG2WR6lrAMUiowIBGaP1go1HzoHtAoxFptsizDovwy-2FpKp-2FeRdUy3wz-2Fne1hUSvXLJUbBHuSFEvBqDypVpxkLSpPmUVN-2B9HBn2lnH4t7a8vx4uzPA5W5PjydCmYtMlBc8tM7iVs5VkQl7xyZaN8tJaJPPDbYCxgI-2BzPeCGY3pqBYb4DYZtzSGDuJULM1lvTpujed8vuMdOJMnzevEzw3x9-2Fna2QkM0ylQ0GgCljI23R4j-2FXP1z4K8Aj63dmXknLFSbEuzkEvr-2BjvPuFyMB9TCTEaKBH08gIUsvJUuQM-2BkBbl-2BFDwnePKtuhToMHGlcadZnoDmPZ6t2zwkM23BmDzCoevVLtlK3sUd3LwvDOV8S8K6aRVN7OsWpnlm-2F4TYy0cPnSb6j1PEq94Tt13F35Qhma1FL-2BUJAAXu2NxB2TzCRxu23y748vj6LZTKUEdnHM36mjEbNqTubapnrZg3dRxOOM-2Fx6CP0LUoh07QR1cQyYFt1eOasH-2F1T1hR-2Bp7-2FHN6o9Paf8LCcHBFxGLeVeVVNno86E93ksvSnUjOwyro5wOZecl-2FheHbYvxeGN1cmPxeoI42aux2gmmLZckBMp4IYmpZN11OmfECisPF8t7tXekTuVX-2F4Rpk5Dh5zsBYArvweYdCakg60Lk5QqDadQnyKG7zV4y-2BFr4BQfyTdTLhspxIS8BzVk63UNxq8hEOlvvFd-2BhbxtO1ckdMGnChjyW7gAyIvgmb9TAZuYwGU-3D">Net-Zero </a><a data-link-role-code="open_new_tab" href="https://u36605228.ct.sendgrid.net/ls/click?upn=JATfH2eKb4CLsSfyNiqx5cP4C4UVZCoq7AuT1kIaGg6SseqmvO9fYNf7tpQVqpWvkP5bW1NRX-2BizSzVyvM3Bi88oo-2FbPgC5YK1pS67LNJomM3Q-2Bpdser3-2FBBGttnEEoIkAxrjzQ2Wu-2Bgd6cmPfQt5-2B7FRw3W4LbqYFAIte0naRcoS-2BgHxLFwPi9eedUqPFbY-2FqKa0TjTAEju4Fh6DU0FrQ-3D-3DpXTK_6Qtni-2Fr6M4vNGDEC637HmTXcErEVHomtJcejsgH-2BQPQGjgGpxH7IuINlJbNwUWX44ttNWhIVuXdGbMqBq0CsoYrISQjcLxISF0W4u7zkSLFfBen8z2btNGu5AnWAyViebwIihJ0NG2WR6lrAMUiowIBGaP1go1HzoHtAoxFptsizDovwy-2FpKp-2FeRdUy3wz-2Fne1hUSvXLJUbBHuSFEvBqDypVpxkLSpPmUVN-2B9HBn2lnH4t7a8vx4uzPA5W5PjydCmYtMlBc8tM7iVs5VkQl7xyZaN8tJaJPPDbYCxgI-2BzPeCGY3pqBYb4DYZtzSGDuJULM1lvTpujed8vuMdOJMnzevEzw3x9-2Fna2QkM0ylQ0GgCljI23R4j-2FXP1z4K8Aj63dmXknLFSbEuzkEvr-2BjvPuFyMB9TCTEaKBH08gIUsvJUuQM-2BkBbl-2BFDwnePKtuhToMHGlcadZnoDmPZ6t2zwkM23BmDzCoevVLtlK3sUd3LwvDOV8S8K6aRVN7OsWpnlm-2F4TYy0cPnSb6j1PEq94Tt13F35Qhma1FL-2BUJAAXu2NxB2TzCRxu23y748vj6LZTKUEdnHM36mjEbNqTubapnrZg3dRxOOM-2Fx6CP0LUoh07QR1cQyYFt1eOasH-2F1T1hR-2Bp7-2FHN6o9Paf8LCcHBFxGLeVeVVNno86E93ksvSnUjOwyro5wOZecl-2FheHbYvxeGN1cmPxeoI42aux2gmmLZckBMp4IYmpZN11OmfECisPF8t7tXekTuVX-2F4Rpk5Dh5zsBYArvweYdCakg60Lk5QqDadQnyKG7zV4y-2BFr4BQfyTdTLhspxIS8BzVk63UNxq8hEOlvvFd-2BhbxtO1ckdMGnChjyW7gAyIvgmb9TAZuYwGU-3D">Roadmap</a>&nbsp;report published in September 2023, the International Energy Agency (IEA) recognised the extreme difficulty of achieving these increases in renewable energy and suggested instead that 19% of final energy will still come from fossil fuels in 2050 and that final-energy consumption will be reduced by 26%.

To remove the resultant emissions, the IEA estimated that one billion metric tons per year of carbon dioxide would need to be captured by 2030, rising to 6 billion tonnes by 2050.

Mechanised technologies for carbon capture and storage (CCS) and direct air capture (DAC) that would be required to do this have been&nbsp;<a href="https://u36605228.ct.sendgrid.net/ls/click?upn=JATfH2eKb4CLsSfyNiqx5SlB66hTZdqhZ1Ub0C0sM1SGbO-2FXToiOXlnNeg4yrpmlAsLZfaIaoaKPuI7jmhFCnlxYnQ0ZfNRBti0VXn0e-2BMf5WVseSZzh9HUtdlbuMWaOMPuo_6Qtni-2Fr6M4vNGDEC637HmTXcErEVHomtJcejsgH-2BQPQGjgGpxH7IuINlJbNwUWX44ttNWhIVuXdGbMqBq0CsoYrISQjcLxISF0W4u7zkSLFfBen8z2btNGu5AnWAyViebwIihJ0NG2WR6lrAMUiowIBGaP1go1HzoHtAoxFptsizDovwy-2FpKp-2FeRdUy3wz-2Fne1hUSvXLJUbBHuSFEvBqDypVpxkLSpPmUVN-2B9HBn2lnH4t7a8vx4uzPA5W5PjydCmYtMlBc8tM7iVs5VkQl7xyZaN8tJaJPPDbYCxgI-2BzPeCGY3pqBYb4DYZtzSGDuJULM1lvTpujed8vuMdOJMnzevEzw3x9-2Fna2QkM0ylQ0GgCljI23R4j-2FXP1z4K8Aj63dmXknLFSbEuzkEvr-2BjvPuFyMB9TCTEaKBH08gIUsvJUuQM-2BkBbl-2BFDwnePKtuhToMHGlcadZnoDmPZ6t2zwkM23BmDzCoevVLtlK3sUd3LwvDOV8S8K6aRVN7OsWpnlm-2F4TYy0cPnSb6j1PEq94Tt13F35Qhma1FL-2BUJAAXu2NxB2TzCRxu23y748vj6LZTKUEdnHM36mjEbNqTubapnrZg3dRxOOM-2Fx6CP0LUoh07QR1cQyYFt1eOasH-2F1T1hR-2BAlEk-2FAbIiqjUt4KmqM71Flrfh2ewFutS2LbOTku1bKcxQCFtx0JTm9uxzRBQMd0RGj2p1tukHVj3NBvdd21qOs3SMebHgv1GkDQj9esz3o-2F3ZOdvRzJhMgeYQ3EwRyBsJurfeEXad5gR-2FT3dihboACpvLFxLAWfMp0BuCMni69KkQKec2Ajzj-2FKToKh8sslOIcwtk8vxhbQTxXaeDTmNwSjuLyA18SXqGCVM3cdIvs4-3D">criticised</a>&nbsp;as being too expensive, too energy intensive, and underperforming in terms of their goal.

Currently,&nbsp;about 2 billion tonnes of carbon&nbsp;dioxide is captured annually, nearly all by forests; only&nbsp;49 million metric tons&nbsp;are being removed from the atmosphere by carbon removal technology projects across the world. About 80% captured carbon is used for “enhanced oil recovery.”

Meanwhile, over&nbsp;37 billion metric tons&nbsp;of carbon dioxide are being released by human activities, primarily from the burning of fossil fuels.

<h3>We can conclude from these scorecard numbers that, as of the start of 2024, humanity is not on track to avoid catastrophic climate change. </h3>

The likelihood of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (the goal stated in the&nbsp;<a href="https://u36605228.ct.sendgrid.net/ls/click?upn=JATfH2eKb4CLsSfyNiqx5bOpxyTMC-2BSpYsAKVm-2Fa-2FxZtb68kDh0KTPIDdxByVki1CaKeRIDNS1HWqlIa7douXv-2Fw-2FdcrmHX70Sqiag12HBQ-3DfCq6_6Qtni-2Fr6M4vNGDEC637HmTXcErEVHomtJcejsgH-2BQPQGjgGpxH7IuINlJbNwUWX44ttNWhIVuXdGbMqBq0CsoYrISQjcLxISF0W4u7zkSLFfBen8z2btNGu5AnWAyViebwIihJ0NG2WR6lrAMUiowIBGaP1go1HzoHtAoxFptsizDovwy-2FpKp-2FeRdUy3wz-2Fne1hUSvXLJUbBHuSFEvBqDypVpxkLSpPmUVN-2B9HBn2lnH4t7a8vx4uzPA5W5PjydCmYtMlBc8tM7iVs5VkQl7xyZaN8tJaJPPDbYCxgI-2BzPeCGY3pqBYb4DYZtzSGDuJULM1lvTpujed8vuMdOJMnzevEzw3x9-2Fna2QkM0ylQ0GgCljI23R4j-2FXP1z4K8Aj63dmXknLFSbEuzkEvr-2BjvPuFyMB9TCTEaKBH08gIUsvJUuQM-2BkBbl-2BFDwnePKtuhToMHGlcadZnoDmPZ6t2zwkM23BmDzCoevVLtlK3sUd3LwvDOV8S8K6aRVN7OsWpnlm-2F4TYy0cPnSb6j1PEq94Tt13F35Qhma1FL-2BUJAAXu2NxB2TzCRxu23y748vj6LZTKUEdnHM36mjEbNqTubapnrZg3dRxOOM-2Fx6CP0LUoh07QR1cQyYFt1eOasH-2F1T1hR-2BZ-2Br5QN1a4xJMkPA4XRvdZyDmx8T8U2R7BLvEIXcTz68A7QaKGZMOytLTSSSRRHK6e11FTH5gzEkSEEuyuRPpL1zb22cLR9WL8MGpteOmTf30dmai9gjP3xjA1Ulpy6KMjguT0PGyVPFQMrIa3MZ1sn0cSIik5Ls8N0NbvS1-2FVqTrmQZvo5Sgqcy8X5F-2FOwQhdEogOkACz9iAsBBoAasNRjdriw0eOot0izk5p0z194w-3D">Paris Accords</a>&nbsp;of 2015) is now extremely remote. Indeed, that threshold may be exceeded&nbsp;<a href="https://u36605228.ct.sendgrid.net/ls/click?upn=JATfH2eKb4CLsSfyNiqx5bJkLFpXV6Z8eyLpRGlRZuXAKWLhiB3JLXoJjQl1HhZxQ1-2Bohhga-2BQYsPnJWFaznno7b6-2BvtUI5v-2B22CNeYFvME-3D6Af3_6Qtni-2Fr6M4vNGDEC637HmTXcErEVHomtJcejsgH-2BQPQGjgGpxH7IuINlJbNwUWX44ttNWhIVuXdGbMqBq0CsoYrISQjcLxISF0W4u7zkSLFfBen8z2btNGu5AnWAyViebwIihJ0NG2WR6lrAMUiowIBGaP1go1HzoHtAoxFptsizDovwy-2FpKp-2FeRdUy3wz-2Fne1hUSvXLJUbBHuSFEvBqDypVpxkLSpPmUVN-2B9HBn2lnH4t7a8vx4uzPA5W5PjydCmYtMlBc8tM7iVs5VkQl7xyZaN8tJaJPPDbYCxgI-2BzPeCGY3pqBYb4DYZtzSGDuJULM1lvTpujed8vuMdOJMnzevEzw3x9-2Fna2QkM0ylQ0GgCljI23R4j-2FXP1z4K8Aj63dmXknLFSbEuzkEvr-2BjvPuFyMB9TCTEaKBH08gIUsvJUuQM-2BkBbl-2BFDwnePKtuhToMHGlcadZnoDmPZ6t2zwkM23BmDzCoevVLtlK3sUd3LwvDOV8S8K6aRVN7OsWpnlm-2F4TYy0cPnSb6j1PEq94Tt13F35Qhma1FL-2BUJAAXu2NxB2TzCRxu23y748vj6LZTKUEdnHM36mjEbNqTubapnrZg3dRxOOM-2Fx6CP0LUoh07QR1cQyYFt1eOasH-2F1T1hR-2BJJUD3CUYLwO-2F-2BGk810FiVYcvzRGjsn9wpF6UnU1TluvZi3u5UgiqcHzAOjs5PeIupwFg-2Brg7VXmF2UaJh0096JclB9PHoq5c2-2BxcTYyF7-2BkCHGsXMT4MFdE6rF7E5RocrjHcAdeeUnaRni8pxzG2RmO5BOaZZmLkIxfbCrypUj3L52GpY9SOwLCyG6R7IUG-2B1dtZ2-2FiZtcGJkn3d2xe3it9TfWwa0h-2F1Suc3JylAHrA-3D">within just the next few years</a>.

If world leaders genuinely hope to change these trends, dramatic action that entails reevaluating current priorities will be required.

Not just fossil fuel subsidies but also continued growth in global energy-tied economic activity must be questioned. Otherwise, we may be destined to fulfill the old adage: “If you do not change direction, you will end up where you are heading.”

Smoke pipes of factory in a city [Image: Kelly]

2023 was the hottest on record by a wide margin. The planet is now 1.48 degrees Celsius warmer than it was before the fossil fuel revolution. Global heating is accelerating.

Climate change and energy transition: The 2023 scorecard

Laurel Sutherlin

Picture a rhinoceros in the rainforest. Add a herd of elephants, families of orangutans swinging through the treetops, and tigers prowling the understory, and there is only one place in the world you could be.

Indonesia’s Leuser Ecosystem is one of Earth’s most ancient forest ecosystems, a laboratory of life’s potential where the alchemy of evolution has been allowed to experiment uninterrupted for millennia. And the results are astounding.

Green upon green, vines hanging from towering old-growth trees, moss growing on ferns and bromeliads… you get the picture.

It is the kind of place one imagines primeval nature to be: wild, abundant, and impenetrable.

Forests of the Singkil-Bengkung region of the Leuser Ecosystem, August 2016. [Photo: Paul Hilton for RAN]

Tragically, <a data-link-role-code="open_new_tab" href="https://www.ran.org/leuser-watch/the-last-of-the-leuser-lowlands/">undercover field investigations in 2019 by my organization</a>, Rainforest Action Network (RAN), exposed major global brands—including Procter and Gamble, Unilever, Nestlé, PepsiCo, Mondelēz, and Nissin Foods—sourcing illegal palm oil grown within the nationally protected Rawa Singkil Wildlife Reserve.

In September 2022, we published the Carbon Bomb Scandals report, showing that the same brands were still sourcing illegal palm oil from the reserve.

With more than a century of proud conservation history responsible for its continued existence, the province of Aceh where the Leuser resides is, against all odds, a sparkling ecological jewel standing in stark contrast to the devastated landscape surrounding it.

Most of the rest of Sumatra—once known as Indonesia’s “Emerald of the Equator”—and sadly, much of the rest of lowland rainforests across Indonesia, too, have been exploited and denuded by wave after wave of scorched-earth policy, industry, colonial extraction, and modern-day corrupt corporate greed.

Aerial shot showing illegal forest conversion, including peatland drainage and deforestation to make room for a palm oil plantation inside Singkil Swamp Nature Reserve, Iemeudama village, Trumon district, south of Aceh. [Photo: Nanang Sujana]

What has already been lost is incalculable, but in this unique ecosystem, there remains a rare opportunity to stop the cycle of destruction and protect a globally valuable treasure before it’s too late.

The Leuser Ecosystem is considered the heart of Southeast Asia’s rainforest region, which, alongside the Amazon in South America and the Congo Basin in Africa, is one of only three tropical forest regions on Earth.

<h3>The orangutan capital of the world</h3>

The beating heart of the Leuser is the lowland forests and peat swamps of the Singkil-Bengkung region. This area is part of western Sumatra’s last healthy peat swamp ecosystem. This lush jungle contains some of the world’s richest levels of biological diversity.

The lowland peat forests of the Leuser Ecosystem deserve the highest levels of protection for multiple critical reasons.

Dubbed the “orangutan capital of the world,” this region has the highest population density of critically endangered Sumatran orangutans anywhere.

Mama and baby orangutan at Camp Leakey, Tanjung Puting, Indonesia. [Image: Rainforest Action Network/Flickr]

This includes a unique, culturally distinct subpopulation of a few thousand individuals in the Singkil-Bengkung region. These subpopulations demonstrate social structures and tool-using behaviors distinct from all other orangutan populations.

These forests are also home to some of the healthiest remaining breeding populations of highly imperiled Sumatran elephants, rhinos, and tigers.

The health of the Leuser Ecosystem’s Singkil-Bengkung landscape is internationally significant because its deep, carbon-rich peatlands are among Earth’s most valuable and effective natural carbon sinks.

Conversely, when drained, cleared, and burned for conversion to palm oil plantations, this soil type is transformed into a carbon bomb that emits catastrophic pollution levels into the atmosphere.

Hundreds of thousands of people rely on the area’s rich natural resources as the basis of their livelihoods.

Critically endangered Sumatran orangutan at the Sumatran Orangutan Conservation Program’s  quarantine center outside Medan, Sumatra, Indonesia. [Photo: Paul Hilton for RAN]

Downstream villages are already suffering severe, sometimes deadly threats from devastating floods, landslides, and the loss of subsistence resources like fish and forest products as a direct result of the rapid rates of deforestation caused by palm oil.

Communities also continue to suffer due to the loss of access to their customary lands, which palm oil companies took without their consent, and due to failures of the government to take decisive action to resolve conflicts and restore the rights of communities to their lands.

The Acehnese people have fought for over a century to protect the integrity of the Leuser Ecosystem’s extraordinary forests, and the region has become internationally famous for its intact expanses of verdant trees and its stunning wealth of imperiled wildlife species.

In the decade between 2009 and 2019, more than 18,000 hectares of forests within the Singkil-Bengkung region were cleared, leaving roughly 250,000 hectares of rainforest.

This area continues to decrease yearly due to deforestation and the drainage of peatlands.

Musim Mas palm oil facility at Belawan Port, north Sumatra, on the edge of the Leuser Ecosystem. [Photo: Nanang Sujana]

In 2022, for example, the reserve lost 700 hectares of primary peat swamp forest (twice the area of New York’s Central Park), revealed a study by forest loss monitoring platform,

TheTreeMap; in the first half of 2023 alone, there was a loss of 372 hectares, according to an analysis by Aceh-based environmental NGO Forest, Nature, and Environment Aceh (HAkA). New canals being built indicate plans for further deforestation and illegal palm oil planting.

<h3>Palm oil is being grown illegally</h3>

In 2019, we conducted a series of undercover investigations due to the alarming destruction of peat forests within the lowland rainforests of the Leuser Ecosystem.

The field research was conducted to determine if the forest clearance was being driven by major snack food brands, even though they had adopted policies years ago to end deforestation in their supply chains.

The investigations and the <a href="https://www.ran.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Rainforest-Action-Network-Leuser-Report-FINAL-WEB.pdf">2022 Carbon Bomb Scandals report</a> were definitive. Palm oil is being grown illegally inside the nationally protected Rawa Singkil Wildlife Reserve, and it is being sold to mills that provide the palm oil used to manufacture snack foods sold across the world by Procter and Gamble, Unilever, Nestlé, PepsiCo, Mondelēz, and Nissin Foods.

Buyer beware: Illegal deforestation to make room for palm oil plantations in Sumatra is destroying critical habitat for endangered orangutans. The oil is used in 50 percent of all consumer goods, from lipstick and packaged food to body lotion, biofuels, and snack foods. [Photo: Laurel Sutherlin]

Buyer beware: Illegal deforestation to make room for palm oil plantations in Sumatra is destroying critical habitat for endangered orangutans. The oil is used in 50 percent of all consumer goods, from lipstick and packaged food to body lotion, biofuels...

These mills are located immediately next to areas of illegal encroachment within the Leuser Ecosystem, and they lack the necessary procedures to trace the location where the palm oil they sell is grown, an essential requirement for <a data-link-role-code="open_new_tab" href="https://theconversation.com/major-palm-oil-companies-broke-their-promise-on-no-deforestation-recovery-is-needed-198399">complying</a> with the No Deforestation, No Peatlands, No Exploitation policies to which all of these brands have publicly committed.

Progress has been made by some companies that have taken steps toward implementing their No Deforestation policies.

Brands like Unilever and Nestlé, for example, have begun the process of increasing supply chain transparency by publishing the mills they source from.

A minority of corporations have achieved traceability to the plantation level (Unilever has outlined its strategies to identify plantations supplying its mills, for example), but most companies remain unable to offer certainty as to exactly where the palm oil they consume is grown.&nbsp;

The Conflict Palm Oil cycle of destruction. [Image: Rainforest Action Network]

RAN’s Keep Forests Standing 2023 Scorecard evaluated and ranked a group of 10 influential global brands, each with public ‘No Deforestation’ policy commitments, and the evidence clearly shows that paper promises are not enough to keep the forests from falling.

The Leuser Ecosystem at large, particularly the Singkil-Bengkung region, still offers a rare and fleeting opportunity to get it right and avoid the devastating mistakes made throughout so much of Indonesia in the past.

It remains possible here to prevent the destruction of habitat that drives iconic wildlife species toward extinction, to avert human suffering from inevitable floods and landslides caused by deforestation, and to end the reckless burning of carbon-filled peatlands contributing to the climate crisis.

The international attention resulting from the release of our 2019 report has helped pressure brands to respond and take further action.

However, the high stakes and urgent threats to the Singkil-Bengkung demand more bold and decisive action to ensure the area receives permanent protection.

The Leuser Ecosystem is considered the heart of Southeast Asia’s rainforest region, which, alongside the Amazon in South America and the Congo Basin in Africa, is one of only three tropical forest regions on Earth.

Palm oil in common household products is destroying the world’s ‘Orangutan Capital’

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Palm oil in common household products is destroying the world’s ‘Orangutan Capital’