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Jubilee, NASA in a neck to neck battle according to IEBC's final tally

A total of 3,782,089 new voters have now been entered in the register following the month long MVR exercise.

President Uhuru Kenyatta (left) and NASA leader Raila Odinga. Latest IEBC data show Jubilee and NASA are locked in a tight contest ahead of the August Elections.
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The figure represents 62 percent of the IEBC’s 6.1 million target

A closer look shows the two coalitions almost equally share the 3.7 million new voters registered at the end of the final voter listing exercise.

Slim margin

The counties which voted strongly voted for Jubilee under President Uhuru Kenyatta and his Deputy William Ruto registered 1,482,437 of the new voters, while those for the opposition had 1,434,632 – a razor sharp lead of only 47, 805.

During last year’s MVR, the commission listed 1.4 million voters. After adding the new 3.7 million new voters, the IEBC now has an additional 5.2 million to the 14.32 million already in the 2013 voters' register.

Leading the Jubilee-leaning counties are Kiambu (1,173,594), Nakuru (948, 668), Meru (712,378), Murang'a (590,775), Nyeri (460, 806) and Uasin Gishu (451,485).

On the NASA side there is Kakamega (746,877), Machakos (627,168), Mombasa (596,485), Bungoma (559,897), Kisumu (548,868) and Kilifi (510, 484).

Rival zones

Overall, in terms of zoning, the 17 Jubilee leaning counties have a total of 7.43 million voters as compared to 17 NASA-leaning counties which have 7.04 million voters.

The narrow margin between the two camps will now more than ever bring more focus to the remaining 13 counties which are classified as key battleground (swing) counties.

These swing states account for 5.1 million votes which are likely to tilt the advantage to either side of the political divide with barely five months to the elections.

Leading the battleground counties are Nairobi (2,304,386), Kisii (544,753), Kajiado (409,266), Narok (347,427), Trans Nzoia (339,832), Nyamira (279,685) and Turkana (188,617).

To be declared President, one must garner at least 50 percent plus one of the viotes cast, in addition to garnering at least 25 percent of the total vote in more than half of the 47 counties.

Failure of any presidential candidate achieving this would force the country to head into a runoff of a simple majority between the top two candidates.

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