Eight Paths to the Best Picture Oscar

What will win the best picture Oscar? This year, the precursors that are supposed to narrow the field have only spread the wealth: The top guild prizes have gone to several movies, and you could still make a strong case for any of the eight nominees to ultimately prevail.

So below, your Carpetbagger will do just that. Ranked in order of strength, here are the contenders for best picture and the path each movie has to potential Oscar victory.

— ‘Roma’

IN ITS FAVOR: Alfonso Cuarón’s black-and-white art film has real momentum. It tied “The Favourite” in picking up the most Oscar nominations, and two of those 10 were for actresses Yalitza Aparicio and Marina de Tavira, which signals that the actors’ branch of the academy has gotten behind the movie.

Netflix has spent an unprecedented amount on the “Roma” awards bid, but there is real passion in the industry for this film set in Mexico City: Cuarón recently claimed the top prize from the Directors Guild of America, a strong predictor for best picture, as well as key trophies from the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards. In a field filled with blockbusters, “Roma” offers a highbrow option that many voters will be eager to take.

WORKING AGAINST IT: Though the academy has become more international as it tries to diversify its membership, there is still real doubt about whether a foreign-language film can win best picture, let alone one distributed by Netflix, a streaming service that has skeptics in the academy membership. A split between the winners of best picture and best director has recently become common, and if you assume Cuarón is a lock to win best director, this may encourage voters to go a different way with best picture.

— ‘Green Book’

IN ITS FAVOR: Based on a true story about a talented black pianist and his white driver, “Green Book” has most often been compared to “Driving Miss Daisy,” a film that took the best picture Oscar. In addition to nabbing three Golden Globes, this racial-issues comedy from Peter Farrelly won top honors from the Producers Guild of America, and the film that prevails there has gone on to win best picture two-thirds of the time. (The very first Producers Guild winner, in 1989, was, you guessed it, “Driving Miss Daisy.”)

WORKING AGAINST IT: No film has been troubled by more awards-season controversies than “Green Book.” The family of the man played by Mahershala Ali has come out against the movie, while both Farrelly and his star Viggo Mortensen have had to issue statements of apology: Mortensen for using a racial epithet at a “Green Book” screening, and Farrelly for a habit of flashing his genitals to crew members as a joke.

Those controversies don’t even register for the many guild voters who love the film, but the academy has a more diverse, discerning membership than the Producers Guild and may prove less beguiled: Farrelly’s inability to score a best-director nomination suggests that not every branch of the academy will give “Green Book” the green light.

— ‘BlacKkKlansman’

IN ITS FAVOR: “BlacKkKlansman” is one of only three contenders to score nominations for directing, screenwriting and editing, the traditional signs of strength that a nominee can win. This Spike Lee hit has had serious stamina all season, showing up in the nominations list for nearly every guild.

Though he was given an honorary Oscar in 2015, Lee has never won an Oscar competitively, and “BlacKkKlansman” represents the first time he’s even been nominated for best director and best picture, the sort of statistic that makes you wince. Handing Lee one of those top prizes would go a long way toward recognizing a director who should have been in the mix far earlier.

WORKING AGAINST IT: The academy has a tendency to give the screenplay Oscar as a consolation prize to a director whose sensibilities may still be too hip for the room, like Jordan Peele, Spike Jonze and Sofia Coppola. “BlacKkKlansman” is one of two films in the adapted-screenplay category up for best picture (the other is “A Star Is Born”), and while it represents Lee’s strongest shot at winning an Oscar, voters could decide that award is enough.

— ‘The Favourite’

IN ITS FAVOR: This royal comedy from director Yorgos Lanthimos tied “Roma” for the most Oscar nominations, and like “BlacKkKlansman,” it is one of only three best picture contenders to score nominations for directing, screenwriting and editing. In addition to best actress contender Olivia Colman, the supporting actress race made room for Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz from this movie, and since actors make up the biggest voting branch in the academy, it’s important to have them on your side.

This weekend brings the BAFTA Awards, which are the British equivalent of the Oscars, and if “The Favourite” can triumph there over “Roma,” the significant British contingent of the academy may be enough to put the film over the top.

WORKING AGAINST IT: Though “The Favourite” picked up a comedy Globe for Colman and recently managed a win with the editors’ guild, it hasn’t yet notched the sort of stop-the-presses victory that makes best picture more plausible.

— ‘Black Panther’

IN ITS FAVOR: If the Oscars want to reward a contender that scored with the viewing audience, there is no better pick than “Black Panther.” This Marvel movie was a box-office phenomenon, and it has enough real-world resonance to overcome voters’ reluctance to reward a fantasy superhero movie: Crucially, “Black Panther” took the top prize from the Screen Actors Guild, where Chadwick Boseman delivered a stirring speech that many Oscar voters will remember.

WORKING AGAINST IT:Though “Black Panther” winning best picture would give us a capital-m Moment, it’s going to be awfully hard to get there when the film couldn’t manage Oscar nominations for its director, screenplay or any cast members.

— ‘A Star Is Born’

IN ITS FAVOR: On paper, no film nominated this year is more Oscar-friendly than “A Star Is Born.” Like recent best picture winners “Birdman” and “The Artist,” it’s a well-reviewed movie that’s essentially about Hollywood itself, but unlike those two films, “A Star Is Born” became a bona fide blockbuster.

WORKING AGAINST IT: Replace Lady Gaga’s triumphant “Shallow” wail with the sound of a sad trombone, and you’ll have an idea of just how much “A Star Is Born” has underperformed this awards season. The film hasn’t taken any of the major wins it was tipped for, and at the Directors Guild Awards on Saturday, Bradley Cooper even lost the first-time filmmaker prize to the director of “Eighth Grade,” Bo Burnham. I’m starting to think that the Oscars could add a specific category just for “A Star Is Born,” and yet, somehow, “Roma” would still win it.

— ‘Vice’

IN ITS FAVOR: Adam McKay’s darkly comedic Dick Cheney biopic can’t be counted out: It was among the few movies to score nominations in directing, screenwriting and editing, and like “The Favourite,” it managed to push three actors — Christian Bale, Amy Adams and Sam Rockwell — into Oscar contention. If the mostly liberal academy wants to thumb its nose at Republican leadership in Washington, “Vice” offers perhaps the most overt way of doing so.

WORKING AGAINST IT: Reviews and box office weren’t as strong as they could have been.

— ‘Bohemian Rhapsody’

IN ITS FAVOR: This Queen biopic is a global phenomenon that voters clearly love. Though it’s practically inconceivable to imagine that a movie directed by the fired Bryan Singer could go on to win best picture, Oscar’s top award would actually go to producer Graham King, whom many in the industry respect for sticking a tough landing.

WORKING AGAINST IT: After #MeToo, would voters really reward a movie whose deposed director was the subject of recent sexual-misconduct allegations in The Atlantic? (Singer has called the article a “homophobic smear piece.”) The best actor category gives “Bohemian Rhapsody” fans an easy, respectable place to recognize the movie with a win for Rami Malek, and that may be enough.

This article originally appeared in The New York Times.