Gachagua’s plot to shake up Ruto as by-elections nears & what is at stake

As Kenya heads into the by-elections planned for November 27, 2025, the united opposition is banking on a lethal strategy to snatch victory and shake up President William Ruto.

For the opposition, the by-elections are less about isolated seats and more about shaping the broader narrative of influence, offering a platform from which to project political strength and test influence.

A leading Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) politician who played a part in crafting the united opposition campaign strategy exuded confidence in opposition candidates carrying the day while also explaining what is at stake for the opposition and what any victory in the polls mean.

The insider who spoke to this writer on condition of anonymity as he is not allowed to speak on behalf of the outfit opined that Ruto’s camp has been thrown into a state of panic with the unfolding political events.

(CS Geoffrey) Ruku gave up his seat to join the cabinet because somebody thought UDA will comfortably retain the seat but they are now sweating despite splashing millions. What you are seeing in Mbeere North is a reflection of the reality on the ground. Failing to deliver this seat will be a catastrophe for Kindiki and Mbarire.

This is a rehearsal for 2027 and the wishes of Kenyans will reflect in the ballot. Despite the playing field not being level, voters know what matters to them and some UDA aspirants (Kisa East ward) have already thrown in the towel even before the game begins.

Strategy adopted by the united opposition

According to him, the united opposition leaders knew what is at stake when they settled on a strategy in which constituent parties agreed to eliminate “internal competition”.

No sacrifice was too great to make, including prevailing upon aspirants to drop their bids and back an identified opposition candidate to avoid “splitting votes” and advantaging UDA candidates.

An aggressive approach combining individual effort among opposition luminaries and collective muscle was rolled out with leaders focusing in areas where their influence will deliver the maximum results while also offering support to candidates in others.

This has seen Cleophas Malala, Eugene Wamalwa and George Natembeya narrow down on by-elections in Western Kenya with Rigathi Gachagua and Justin Muturi camping in Mbeere North.

What is at stake for Gachagua

For Gachagua, the contests, particularly in Mbeere North where Democratic Party's Newton Kariuki Ndwiga is facing off against Leonard wa Muthende is more than a routine political exercise for voters in the electoral areas to choose new representatives.

The DCP leader is positioning himself to play a far more assertive role on the national stage and the contests-though limited in scale-present a strategic opening for him to deepen his ties with grassroots networks, rally sympathetic factions to enhance his relevance in the political ecosystem.

The mini-polls offer a rare, high-stakes opportunity to test his influence in Mount Kenya and possibly ring-fence the vote block while rallying loyalists and appealing to voters to deny President Ruto a second term.

He is also eyeing victory to bolster his political clout and send a strong message that he remains a force to reckon with.

A victory for our candidates will pass a strong message to those that have been downplaying Gachagua’s influence and the wantam crusade. The united opposition is not getting into these polls to lose.

Within the united opposition, Gachagua has positioned himself at the center of candidate selection, grassroots mobilization, campaigns in what is a clear sign that the by-elections is not merely about securing wins, but also staking a political claim that could reshape dynamics at the heart of the 2027 presidential election.