Dangerous
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In his analysis titled: The Mudavadi Coup in NASA: Fixing Raila, Prof Ngunyi opines that Mudavadi’s first ploy was to convince Mr Odinga to collapse his CORD Coalition, which had already succeeded.
Ngunyi states that since the former Prime Minister had folded his Coalition and joined the National Super Alliance (NASA), which is owned by Mudavadi, he (Odinga) must make sure he agrees with the ANC leader.
“First he will offer NASA to Raila and convince Raila to kill CORD. He has already done that and Raila has swallowed this particular hook. But in the meantime what Raila forgets is that NASA instruments are in the hands of Mudavadi. If Mudavadi disagrees with Raila he will not release these instruments ti him and he will not become therefore the NASA candidate,” Ngunyi notes.
The political scientist indicates that Mudavadi second strategy is to suspend the naming of NASA’s flagbearer until the ongoing Party nomination is over.
According to Ngunyi, this is in anticipation of ODM leaders who will feel irked by the primaries and move away from the Orange Party.
The professor notes that Mudavadi will create a safe haven for them in NASA after disappointment in Odinga's party.
“Mudavadi strategy is to suspend the naming of the NASA candidate until the party nominations are over. And the idea here is very simple, there will be a fallout within ODM and Mudavadi expects to harvest the disgruntle elements. Under the banner of NASA /Mudavadi will split ODM and carry its dissidents,” he mentions.
Ngunyi adds that the final blow Mudavadi wiil take on Odinga will be to ‘steal’ Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka and leave the ODM chief with a ‘shell’.
“If Mudavadi support Kalonzo this scheme will have been executed. He will have killed CORD, split ODM and stolen Kalonzo,” he states.
At the same time, Ngunyi reiterates that ‘Odinga is not the change for Kenya but represents continued failure’.
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