How Raila will surprise Jubilee by rejoining October 26 race

Odinga has hinted that he would return to the October 26 at the last minute.

One of Odinga’s strongest values is his political strategies that often confound both ally and foe. It is not for nothing that he is referred to as the enigma of Kenyan politics.

After losing in the nullified August 8 election, the ODM presidential candidate insisted that he would not challenge the results in the Supreme Court, only to make a U-turn three days to the deadline of filing the petition.

The Jubilee and IEBC would later lose the petition that only gave them a mere forty eight hours to respond to NASA’s mountain of evidence.

In the repeat election, the former Prime Minister has managed to single handedly throw the country in to a political and, perhaps, constitutional crisis.

The 72-year old veteran politician started by dismissing IEBC’s initial election date of October 17.

In his characteristic indecisiveness, IEBC Chairman Wafula Chebukati led his commission in kowtowing to the demands from the NASA team.

Like Oliver Twist in Charles Dickens’s famous novel, Odinga wanted more. His political team started making a list of over thirty demands termed as “irreducible minimums”. Failure to meet any of the demands would mean “no election”, they said.

The Opposition leader would later “withdraw” from the presidential candidate but notably, failed to sign the formal documents that the IEBC indicated were required to officially exit from the repeat poll.

Many Kenyans, including NASA supporters, have since interpreted the Opposition as threatening to use violence to stop the October 26 poll.

However, in my opinion, Raila is merely executing a well-crafted political strategy.

Indeed, the Opposition leader has no intention of boycotting or withdrawing from the repeat election. That is why he did not sign the so called form 24A.

My view is that NASA distracted the IEBC from holding a well-planned and credible election by purporting to withdraw their candidate.

Next week, I predict, Odinga will re-join the presidential election “in the interest of the country”.

Today (Thursday), he already hinted as much where he said he was willing to reconsider his withdrawal if Chebukati and Kenyatta’s meeting set for Monday resolves his fears.

The radar-less Jubilee team will celebrate, oblivious of Odinga’s real goal – another nullified election.

The IEBC has not properly trained its staff and procurement of essential election materials is being made last minute. The result? The Supreme Court will again announce a nullified October 26 poll.

In the end, the only solution to this expensive cycle will be a Government of National Unity. In this game of wits, Jubilee should agree to accept and move,  Raila has won!

Tony Mukere is a journalist and social commentator. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the position of


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