Can Ruto escape the curse that hit previous ruling parties?

In Kenyan politics, winning the presidency is the easy part. The impossible feat is keeping the winning party alive.

As President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) begins to lay the groundwork for 2027, it is staring into a political graveyard filled with the very parties that, like itself, once celebrated a victory at the State House.

Since KANU’s dynastic rule ended, the path to power has been littered with the wreckage of "special purpose vehicles" which are parties and coalitions built to win a single election, only to disintegrate under the weight of their own success.

From NARC in 2002 to the spectacular implosion of Jubilee in 2018, the pattern is undeniable. 

This history presents the most significant, yet predictable, test for President Ruto: Can UDA be the first party in the multi-party era to break the curse, or is it destined to be another casualty?

The Graveyard of Giants

The curse began the moment KANU lost. The 2002 National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) was a "coalition of convenience" with one goal: to remove KANU from power. It succeeded spectacularly.

But its life was short. Built on a contentious Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that was allegedly ignored, the coalition cracked. 

By the 2005 constitutional referendum, its key partners, led by Raila Odinga, were openly campaigning against their own government. 

NARC was too weak by its third birthday, forcing President Mwai Kibaki to seek re-election in 2007 on a new, hastily assembled ticket.

That ticket was the Party of National Unity (PNU). It was not a party in the true sense, but a re-election lifeboat for Kibaki. 

It barely survived the disputed 2007 election and was immediately forced into a Government of National Unity with its rival, ODM. 

After Kibaki’s term, PNU faded into obscurity, its purpose served.

The Jubilee Experiment and its collapse

The most potent and relevant case study for UDA is the one President Ruto helped build and then dismantle: Jubilee.

The Jubilee leadership, having seen the NARC/PNU failures, tried a two-step solution.

2013 (The Coalition)

In 2013, former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s TNA and William Ruto’s URP formed the Jubilee Alliance. 

They won, but governed as a fragile "government of two halves," constantly at risk of a NARC-style split.

To solve this, they merged TNA, URP, and 10 other parties into the single, massive Jubilee Party in 2017. 

This was a deliberate attempt to break the curse. They aimed to create a new dominant institution that would rule for decades.

It won the re-election. For a moment, it seemed the curse was broken.

But the Jubilee Party failed the next, and most crucial, test: succession. 

Immediately after the 2017 victory, the party was torn apart by the 2022 succession battle. 

The 2018 "Handshake" between former President Kenyatta and his rival, the late Raila Odinga, effectively exiled Ruto from the party he had co-founded.

The subsequent implosion was total, proving that even a single-party structure was no match for the ambitions of its big men. UDA itself was born directly from Jubilee's ashes.

The Two-Front War: UDA's 2027 Test

President Ruto, a student of KANU, ODM, and Jubilee, now faces both curses simultaneously.

1. The NARC Test (The Coalition)

UDA is the anchor of the Kenya Kwanza (KK) Coalition. 

Like the 2002 NARC MoU, the KK alliance was built on pre-election pacts that created powerful roles like the prime cabinet secretaries and other rewards for coalition partners, including Cabinet-level appointments.

The 2027 test is whether this pact will hold. As of 2025, Mudavadi’s former party, ANC party merged with UDA.

2. The Jubilee Test (The Party)

More critically, UDA must survive its own internal politics. The party is a "big tent" united around President Ruto, but its two most powerful pillars are the President and his Deputy, Kithure Kindiki. 

Just like in the 2018 handshake, Ruto and Raila's decision to create a working relationship between ODM and UDA may also play out in the 2027 succession. 

A faction of ODM has expressed willingness to support Ruto in 2027, while another faction is opposed to the broad-based government. 

If ODM chooses to support the president, the party could disrupt the agreements of the Kenya Kwanza Coalition and its coalition partners.

The test is whether UDA can manage the ambitions of its powerful insiders as it approaches a second-term campaign. 

The 2027 election cycle will, therefore, be more than a contest against the opposition. It will be a battle against history itself, a race to see if UDA can become a lasting institution, or if it will simply be the next grand tombstone in the graveyard of presidential parties.