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What Uhuru Will Do If Raila is Sworn in as President - Mutahi Ngunyi Reveals [VIDEO]

If this happens, Raila will be history

In his first hypothesis named Statistical Simulation, Prof Ngunyi who is an ardent supporter of President Uhuru Kenyatta categorically states that Mr. Kenyatta will win the poll.

“Uhuru will win for two reasons. One incumbent Presidents in Africa do not lose elections unless they are incompetent. And the last time we checked Uhuru is many things but incompetent.

“Two the GEMA nation countrywide is 5.6 million votes. The Kalenjin nation is close to 2.3 million votes and together Uhuru starting point is 7.9million votes. On Raila’s part the entire Kamba, Luo and Luhya nations add up to 6.9 million votes,” Ngunyi said.


In the second theory which Ngunyi and his team, Fort Hall School of Government, dubbed Zero Sum game – Uhuru will not win and Raila will lose.

Based on this analysis the political scientist predicts President Kenyatta’s strategy in the ‘unlikely’ event that he does not retain his seat and NASA flag bearer is sworn in as the 5th President of Kenya.

According to his analysis titled Tyranny of Lies: Why Uhuru will defeat Raila, the only way Mr. Odinga will be sworn in as president will be using underhanded methods.

Mr. Ngunyi pointed out that in this case, his Deputy President Kalonzo Musyoka will not want to associate with such ‘dubious’ methods and opt out of the Coalition.

The Prof theorizes that Mr. Kenyatta will then take this opportunity to sway Kalonzo to become the Prime Minister of Kenya.


"If Raila is sworn in using bush methods, Kalonzo will refuse to be sworn in to become his bush deputy and this is where the drama will begin.

"Uhuru will negotiate with Kalonzo directly and then he will make him Prime Minister," the analyst says.

Ngunyi adds that ANC party leader Musalia Mudavadi and Bungoma Senator Moses Wetangula will also be given direct offers by President Kenyatta.

"If this happens Raila will be history, ".

The third theory is No Results which Ngunyi mentions that there will be a run-off.


Here is the video analysis:

Nonetheless, President Kenyatta has on several occasions mentioned that he will concede defeat if Odinga wins free and fair.


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