The running mate gamble: How Ruto’s 2027 choice could define his legacy

The choice of a running mate in 2027 presidential election is emerging as a major strategic challenge for President William Ruto who is keen on securing a second term and who boldly declared that Raila Odinga was the only person who could have posed a formidable challenge while exuding confidence of trouncing any opponent.

Recent demands by the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party that it will accept nothing short of the Deputy President (if not the top seat) only complicate what is already proving to be a difficult decision for a president whose former deputy has made it his personal mission to make him a serve one term.

While the deputy-presidential slot may seem secondary to the presidency, in Kenya’s political context it is crucial for ticket balancing — both regionally and in terms of party alliances.

Ruto must navigate fault lines within his own coalition, regional vote-blocks, and evolving electoral dynamics.

Several structural and political constraints shape Ruto’s decision and maximise the viability of his candidature.

Base consolidation, expansion & regional loyalties

Ruto sailed to victory with overwhelming support from the Mount Kenya region. His fallout with Gachagua was a defining moment of his relationship with vote bloc with growing commentary suggesting that he cannot afford to lose the region.

READ: How Kindiki has navigated power & politics to become the deputy Ruto wanted

After Gachagua’s impeachment, Kindiki Kithure who hails from the region was picked as the deputy president and this helped in silencing a narrative driven by Gachagua that the Mount Kenya region had been short-changed.

While picking a candidate from Mount Kenya may help in his efforts to ring-fence the region, the President must also look beyond his current base and broaden support in regions such as Nyanza, the Coast and Western Kenya.

Alliance and coalition dynamics: Who gets what

Alliances and coalitions will shape the outcome of the 2027 elections and going into the contest, Ruto is likely to reach out to other players and parties just like he did in 2022.

As part of coalition calculations, the running-mate slot might go to other parties that enter into a coalition agreement with Ruto’s party, unlike in 2022 when Gachagua was picked to shore up the Mount Kenya region.

Notably, the person picked for the slot must bring real value in terms of votes and tick many other boxes increase Ruto’s chances of winning the contest.

READ: Can Ruto escape the curse that hit previous ruling parties?

Those eyeing the running-mate slot might have to be content with what is promised to them should their side secure victory or bolt out to join rival outfits.

Continuity vs change: The reality of an evolving political landscape

Ruto’s current deputy hails from the Mount Kenya region by growing commentary suggest that Kindiki might be dropped to align Ruto’s candidature with the realities of the political landscape and accommodate new allies, coalitions and alliances.

As such,  change may be inevitable to maximise his electoral viability in 2027 with hints that a broad-based ticket may be the direction to go.

Neither Ruto nor Kindiki has made a pronouncement on this but as possible alliance/coalition partners continue to table their demands, the possibility of Kindiki being dropped is becoming more apparent.

Gender, youth and voter expectations

A ticket that reflects gender and generational change is the expectation of many and having a running mate who is acceptable to these demographics may be a key consideration.

Based on what each is bringing to the table, some analysts suggest the running-mate slot might go to a female or a youthful politician capable of mobilising these vote blocs to secure victory.

The running-mate choice is not simply about 2027: it is a consequential decision that may determine whether Ruto’s presidency ends after one term or whether he positions his party and allies for a longer stay in power.

Balancing the competing demands to make the right choice could strengthen his re-election bid, but the wrong one could provide an opening for challengers.