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Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua is famous for publicly proclaiming that he had set up traps at State House to ensnare opposition leader Raila Odinga and scuttle any handshake with President William Ruto.
Well, it is public knowledge that the traps failed with the birth of the broad-based government that cemented Odinga’s cooperation with President William Ruto.
Now out of favour with the President and with no access to State House, Gachagua now finds himself in the same spot where his political rivals were at the time with real traps, obstacles and challenges in his quest to send President Ruto home and have an ally in the house on the hill.
United by a collective desire to take power and discontent with the current administration, Gachagua and the opposition are on a mission with several hurdles that they have to overcome, and with Ruto having an upper hand in key areas that will impact the outcome of the contest.
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The power of state machinery
Being in power comes with access to state machinery which the opposition has alleged is being used to intimidate and frustrate them despite the constitution being clear on the role of each state agency and fairness.
READ: Battle lines drawn as 2027 contest shapes up & distinct coalitions emerge
DCP leader is on record alleging that the police service and other agencies are being misused to settle political scores, with several of his allies having been arrested or summoned to record statements with many others claiming their security has been withdrawn.
File image of President William Ruto at State House Nairobi
Test of unity & temptation to join the government
Shared frustrations with the current administration, a number of issues and individual ambition is the glue that holds the opposition together in a unity that came out of circumstances rather than necessity when Gachagua was impeached.
The Kenyan political system is influenced by many forces, political deals and brokers that is a real threat to the unity of the opposition, along with individual ambitions.
READ: Gachagua revisits Murkomen’s appointment & why Ruto did not keep promise to Gen Zs
The temptation of joining government is also real with President Ruto’s allies extending an invite to opposition leaders willing to work with the president. Whether all will resist the temptation and remain united up to the ballot and beyond will inform the outcome of the election.
Sacrifice: Who will shelve ambitions
A number of opposition leaders have declared that they will be on the ballot in 2027. Martha Karua, Eugene Wamalwa, Kalonzo Musyoka and Fred Matiang’i have all asserted that they will be going for the highest seat in the land.
READ: Gachagua: My aunt’s concerns about Ruto, repeated warning, consequence & regrets
Some have sacrificed their ambitions in the past while others will be giving it their first attempt.
The question of who will shelve their ambitions and back the other is a critical one that could scuttle the opposition and with a disunity opposition, a loss is almost certain.
Financial resources
That the man they are up against has deep pockets is not in doubt. From splashing Sh1.2billion to build a chapel at State House to millions dished out at empowerment programmes and church services, Ruto’s individual financial might dwarfs that of the opposition collectively.
READ: Millions splashed in economic empowerment events & what generous donors earn
The opposition has raised issues with the president's wealth, claiming that part of it is proceeds of corruption but even those making the accusations may not be clean.
Presidential campaigns require resources to traverse the country, book venue for events, print campaign items and advertise in the media.
Failing to mobilise sufficient resources could puncture their bid to send Ruto home.
Do they have anything new to offer?
A look at the opposition reveals the same faces that have been in Kenya’s politics for decade with nothing much to show for it with some having served in past and current governments.
Laced with promises of fixing what is broken in the nation, the opposition has been traversing the country to prosecute their case but those familiar with Kenya’s politics are aware that this is the same script that political formations have used in the past with the same outcome.
Whether the current euphoria of wantam will die down or convince voters to reject Ruto at the ballot will become clear in the fullness of time.
READ: Kindiki turns to 5 tactics resembling Ruto's in his political evolution
United by the shared ambition of sending President Ruto home in 2027 and forming the next government, the opposition has a long way to go with many traps that could thwart their efforts.
File image of opposition leaders including Justin Muturi, fred Matiang'i Kalonzo Musyoka and Martha Karua when they were hosted by DCP leader Rigathi Gachagua in Wamunyoro
How they manouvre the rapidly evolving political landscape will influence the outcome of 2027 elections.
The power of Gen Zs and the quest for a better Kenya
A new wave of change largely driven by the citizenry that is not affiliated to any political party or personality is also a reality that bot the opposition and President Ruto have to face.
Keen on re-setting Kenya’s political discourse and leadership, and united by their shared plight as well as misgivings with the current administration, the power of gen Zs has been felt is recent protests.
Their deep understanding of issues, the constitution and ability to unpack empty political rhetoric while speaking truth to power is a challenge that many politicians are struggling to deal with.
Their numerical strength is an asset to anyone who hopes to win the contest but will Gachagua and the opposition convince them?
Editor's note: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Pulse as its publisher.